Zeravan Abdulmuhsen Asaad

Ph.D.

Financial Management

M.S.

Business Administration

B.A.

Business Administration

Professor

Assistant Professor

Lecturer

Assistant Lecturer

Kurdistan Illuminations

جاء هذا الكتاب؛ لتسليط الضوء على عدد من القضايا المتنوعة من خلال خمسة عشر مقالاً، طرحت أغلبها موضوعات على وجه الخصوص في بيئة إقليم كوردستان من النواحي السياسية، والاقتصادية، والتعليمية مع الإشارة في بعض منها إلى العراق الفدرالي، سواء بالمقارنة بين الإقليم والمركز، أو المركز مع دول الجوار والمنطقة. ولكي تكون هناك استفادة فعلية من المقالات، وليس مجرد الكتابة لغرض النشر فحسب وأن تكون هناك إضاءة لرؤى مستقبلية لوضع اللبنات الأساسية للتخطيط السليم، لوضع أهداف واضحة المعالم مع خارطة طريق لكيفية مواجهة المشكلات المطروحة في إقليم كوردستان بتقديم عدة مقترحات للتغلب؛ على المشاكل، أو على الأقل تقليل الآثار السلبية الناتجة ضمن المقالة الواحدة.

Regional Stock Market Efficiency at Weak Form after the Covid-19 Vaccination approval

The contradiction in the previous results provides a deep avenue for researchers to take more interest in the stock market efficiency and conduct more studies. Therefore, the study objective is to decide whether the Arab Federation of Exchanges (S&P AFE 40 Index Return) is efficient at weak-form based on normality and random walk hypothesis using several statistics such as the Jarque-Bera test as a parametric technique to check the normality and the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test as a parametric method to test the random walk hypothesis. Moreover, the results are reinforced by six non-parametric techniques to test the normality hypothesis such as the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Shapiro-Wilk test, Lilliefors test, Cramer-von Mises test, Watson test, Anderson-Darling test, and four non-parametric techniques such as run test, variance ratio test, Phillips-Perron test, and autocorrelation test to check the random walk hypothesis for daily data after the Covid-19 vaccination program over the period from 31 March 2020 to 31 March 2023, the results of all tests indicated that the market index return is non-efficient at the weak form, and concluded that the investors could analyze the Arab Federation of Exchanges’ past stock prices or other historical data as opportunities to predict future stock prices and earn unusual profits; therefore, Policymakers may further improve access to information to prevent investors from having opportunities to predict stock movements to obtain abnormal returns.

Oil Exports, Political Issues, and Stock Market Nexus

This study investigates the influence of oil export and political issues on Iraq's stock exchange using various Ordinary Least Square regression models. The empirical results show that the model's effect is not similar based on the explanatory variables included, such as the Covid-19 outbreak, financial crisis, parliament elections, and ISIS emergence are not significant. In contrast, the internal conflict, oil export, and oil prices are substantial effects on the index of the Iraq stock exchange from (2004 to 2021); researchers in the literature have neglected this market due to its novel establishment after (2003). Moreover, the market capitalization still considers very small compared to the regional financial markets. The study contributes to the existing knowledge because most studies on stock market determinants consider political, economic, democratic, or governmental factors. In contrast, here, most elements included using new measurements, such as the internal conflict by cutting off the financial share of the Kurdistan region from the central state budget. Finally, the analysis incorporates the conclusions with straightforward suggestions that policymakers can use, government, investors, and supervisors to control the stock market risk.

Iraqi Stock Exchange Reactions to the Oil price, Covid-19 Aftermath, and the Saudi Stock Exchange Movements pre-during Vaccination Program

The study attempts to understand the influence of Brent oil price per barrel (BOP), the general index of 30 stocks in Saudi Arabia (MSCI30), the number of Covid-19 new infected cases (NIC_19), ounce gold price (OGP), and US dollar base to Iraqi Dinar exchange rate (USD_IQD) upon Iraq stock exchange (ISX60) using the daily period (25 February 2020 to 15 July 2021) divided into three subperiod; whole period pre-during covid-19, pre-Covid-19 and during Covid-19 vaccination process. The results indicate the long-run relationship between the regressors and the Iraq stock exchange in the subperiod before Covid-19 and during the Covid-19 vaccination process but did not appear for the whole period pre-during the covid-19 vaccination process. The results reveal a positive influence of (MSCI30 and USD_IQD) on ISX60 in the long term for a period before the Covid-19 vaccination process. And, the results indicate a negative influence of (BOP and OGP) respectively on (ISX60) in the long term, and (MSCI30) positively leads ISX60 in the long term during the Covid-19 vaccination process. The results are crucial to governments, investors, and policymakers because the Iraqi economic movements and stock exchange development need more highlight in the further studies, especially the vaccine discovery consequences.

Evaluation of Research, Journals, and Universities in Iraq and the Kurdistan Region According to the Scimago Classification of Administration and Economics Specializations: A Comparative Study with Neighboring Countries

The aim of study is to determine the level of researchers, the quality of published research, and the quality of journals in the fields of administration and economics, using indicators from the Scimago journal and country Rank (SJR) and the Scimago Institutions Rankings (SIR), which is based on the Scopus database of the Dutch publishing house Elsevier for Iraq in comparison to neighboring countries (Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Jordan and Syria) in terms of the number of published research, total citations, citations per publication which reflects the quality of scientific research and refereed scientific journals for three different time periods, including for a period of (24) years over the period (1996-2020) and for a period of (18) years after the year (2002) and for the year (2020) only, and the number of academic journals and universities classified for the year (2021) for Iraq using the descriptive and quantitative method of academic journals over the period (1996-2020). The study concludes that, except in Syria, research output, academic journals, and universities in Iraq and the Kurdistan Region fall behind neighboring nations. Also, this study suggests that higher education and educational authorities should update regulations and directions to motivate Iraqi researchers and universities to publish according to prominent databases such as Scopus.

Envisaging Macroeconomics Antecedent Effect on Stock Market Return in India

Investors have increasingly become interested in macroeconomic antecedents in order to better understand the investment environment and estimate the scope of profitable investment in equity markets. This study endeavors to examine the interdependency between the macroeconomic antecedents (international oil price (COP), Domestic gold price (GP), Rupee-dollar exchange rates (ER), Real interest rates (RIR), consumer price indices (CPI)), and the BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 index return. The data is converted into a natural logarithm for keeping it normal as well as for reducing the problem of heteroscedasticity. Monthly time series data from January 1992 to July 2019 is extracted from the Reserve Bank of India database with the application of financial Econometrics. Breusch–Godfrey serial correlation LM test for removal of autocorrelation, Breusch–Pagan-Godfrey test for removal of heteroscedasticity, Cointegration test and VECM test for testing cointegration between macroeconomic factors and market returns,] are employed to fit regression model. The Indian market returns are stable and positive but show intense volatility. When the series is stationary after the first difference, heteroskedasticity and serial correlation are not present. Different forecast accuracy measures point out macroeconomics can forecast future market returns of the Indian stock market. The step-by-step econometric tests show the long-run affiliation among macroeconomic antecedents.

Oil Price, Gold Price, Exchange Rate and Stock Market in Iraq Pre-During COVID-19 Outbreak: An ARDL Approach

This study used the econometrics methods to identify the interactions among oil price, gold price, exchange rate, and stock price which represented by the (ISX60) index under the Iraq stock exchange pre-during global pandemic of COVID-19. The analysis employed daily data which categorized into three time periods: full sample pre-during COVID-19 from 24 December 2018 to 3 September 2020, the pre-COVID-19 period from 31 December 2018 to 30 December 2019, as well as during-COVID-19 from 27 December 2019 to 3 September 2020 in order to measure the interactions between the variables for each period. To accomplish that the study used the correlation matrix, unit root test to assure the stationary for the ARDL model and the granger causality test. The correlation output showed different results between the variables based on the period division. Furthermore, the study results accepted the null hypothesis of no cointegration exists between the variables respectively for the (Full sample Pre-during and pre-COVID-19) period, and no decision could be made about the long-run relationship amongst the variables for the (during-COVID-19) period, while the results of the causal short-run model showed that effect of oil price, gold price and exchange rate insignificant with Iraq stock exchange.

The Impact of FDI Inflows on GDP Growth in Iraq for the period (2004-2017): An applied study

This paper aims to examine the relationship between the changing foreign direct investment inflows and gross domestic product growth using yearly time series observations for the period (2004-2017). The current study proposed the hypothesis which investigated utilizing the novel econometrics methods such as unit root test, cointegration test and Granger causality test, the results revealed that existence of long run equilibrium relationship between the foreign direct investment inflows and gross domestic product growth during the period of the study, probably due to the little inflow to Iraq in the form to participate in pushing Iraqi economic growth due to the nonoil exports structure where average of total values of petroleum exports to total Iraqi value of exports reach to (99%) during the study period.

Corruption, Terrorism and the Stock Market: The Evidence from Iraq

The current study explains how corruption, terrorism, political stability and oil price has an effect on on the Iraq stock exchange utilizing corruption perception index as a proxy of corruption, global terrorism index as proxy for terrorism, political stability and oil price with ISX60 index as proxy of stock market for the period (2005-2019) using Ordinary Least Square method. The results show that the level of corruption, terrorism activities and political stability coefficient is significantly positive with Iraq stock exchange. In contrast, the oil price coefficient is significantly negative with Iraq stock exchange, which means that lower levels of corruption, less terrorism activities and more stability in political system have strong influence on stock market development in Iraq. The study concludes that the explanatory variables are important for Iraq stock exchange. Hence, the study suggests the policy makers to develop stock market by implementing policies and strategies to overcome high level of corruption, terrorism activities especially after ISIS/ISIL announcement has been made public. There is a need for transparency and creating stable political environment through good governance practices in order to attract more foreign investment and promote economic development. Factors like terrorism and corruption make economic and political systems unstable and has an adverse effect on on Iraq’s stock exchange performance.

The impact of geopolitical risks and the human development on foreign direct investment inflows in Iraq for the period (2004-2018)

The study aims to identify the effect of geopolitical, financial and human factors on FDI flows to Iraq for the period (2004-2018) using multiple linear regression, and the results showed that the reality of foreign direct investment in Iraq is explained by political, financial and human factors in varying proportions, i.e. the significance positive effects of (controlling corruption, the existence of the coalition forces in Iraq and the oil price exceeded one hundred dollars per barrel), the study come out that no relationship of foreign direct investment inflows with (the market value index, the human development index, the period of ISIS presence and the Iraqi parliamentary elections). The study also included some suggestions, including the need for the decision maker to take the necessary steps to improve the rank of Iraq in the relevant international classifications in risk assessment by providing an appropriate business environment and stable political and security conditions.

The Influence of Human Development, Institutional Quality and ISIS Emergence on Foreign Direct Investment in Iraq

This study investigates the influence of human development and institutional quality on the foreign direct investment net inflows on the gross domestic product in Iraq for the period (2004-2016) by using OLS regression. The empirical results show that governance sub- indicators do not actually matter much in attracting Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows in Iraq. This variable shows fixed results with a different sign; the Political Stability (PS), Government Effectiveness (GE) and Rule of Law (RL) are the sub-indicators of the governance with a positive sign which is insignificant, while the Voice and Accountability (VA), Regulatory Quality (RQ) and Control of Corruption (CC) are the sub-indicators of the governance index with a negative sign and an insignificant impact on FDI inflows. The value of Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) coefficient is negative and significant at 10% level. Hence it has been concluded that the explanatory variables are negatively associated with the dependent variable FDI. In contrast, the Human Development Index (HDI) has a positive and significant impact on FDI inflows. This study found that Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) emergence after (2013) had a significant coefficient, meaning that ISIS has affected the level of FDI inflows.

The Influence of the Financial and Real Output Indicators on Malaysian Stock Market

We used the co-integration and causality approach monthly data for the analysis from the period September 1998 to October 2011. A Johansen co-integration test indicated long-run relationship between the FTSE/BM Top 100 Index and industrial production, and consumer price index, and a negative long-run relationship with money supply and interest rate, the error correction model estimated that the speed of adjustment was (0.2160), which indicates that the Malaysian stock market converges on equilibrium within five months. Granger causality tests showed no causal relationship between the Malaysian stock market and the interest rate, but showed bidirectional movement with consumer price index and unidirectional movement from money supply with respect to the Malaysian stock market. In addition, unidirectional movement was found from the Malaysian stock market to the industrial production.

Testing the efficiency of Iraq Stock Exchange for period (2010-2014): An empirical study

This study attempt to know the existence of weak form efficiency in the Iraq stock exchange by using daily closing prices for the period (4/1/2010-7/1/2014), the normality and random walk hypothesis tested using the (Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Shapiro-Wilk test, Cramer-Von Mises, Watson test, Anderson-Darling test, Augmented Dickey Fuller test, Phillips-Perron test, Run test and Autocorrelation test), all the tests results showed that the Iraq stock exchange is not efficient at the weak form, which mean that the market give the opportunity to get abnormal profits based on historical prices to predict future prices.

Testing the Bank Sector at Weak Form Efficiency in Iraq Stock Exchange for Period (2004-2014): An empirical Study

This paper aims to examine the weak-form of efficiency of Iraq stock exchange (ISX) for all individual banks which are listed in the stock market using monthly closing price for ten years (2004-2014). The current study proposed the hypothesis which investigated utilizing parametric and nonparametric tests, all tests results revealed that all individual banks are inefficient at the weak-form. As results, this study concluded that the bank’s stock price which listed in the Iraq stock exchange does not reflect all the historical information and abnormal profits opportunity can be exploited by using the past stock prices to predict the future stock prices.

Analysis of the Bank's Ability which are Operating in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq to Meet the Investment Law

This study aims to determine the ability of banks operating in the Kurdistan region of Iraq to fulfill the requirements of huge projects that was completed after the issuance of the investment law, as it consists study population consisted of managers and heads of departments in the government and private banks operating in Kurdistan region as a sample for the study which were selected randomly in three provinces in the region and the number of questionnaires distributed to a sample study are 95 questionnaires while we were receiving 34 questionnaires valid for analysis at a rate of 86% of the study population. Then the researchers used statistical method (Minitab) to achieve the goals of research. the most important findings of the researchers that the banks is unable to catch up with the minimum requirements of the new investments in Kurdistan region in all sectors to not possess capital sufficient to finance …

The Economics Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment Inflow in Iraq for the Period (2004-2011): An empirical study

The impact of economic variables on the growth of FDI inward is always of interest to economists, financial, academics and decision-makers nowadays, was discussed this issue extensively in recent years, but the results were different and unclear, so the main objective of this study is to analyze the impact of three macroeconomic variables; inflation rate, interest rate and exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar against the U.S. dollar on the foreign direct investment inflows to Iraq for a period of eight years (2004-2011) using statistical analysis and econometrics as multiple regression. The study results showed that there was no significant effect of both the inflation rate and the interest rate, and the existence of significant negative effect of the exchange rate on the dependent variable foreign direct investment inwards in Iraq. The study concluded that the increase in the exchange rate of the Iraqi currency leads to lower FDI inwards. The study suggested that the Iraqi government focus to establish effective monetary policy in order to stable the exchange rate to attract more foreign direct investment to participate in the economic development and reconstruction process to be undertaken.

Analyzing Growth Strategies of Banking Sectors: A case study on Kurdistan International Bank

Time to time, the banking sector around the world face difficulties and challenges whether it is a locally or internationally. The Iraqi banking sector has been shifted to a new era after the development and rebuilding the country since 2005, which acquired new technology - provide better services and products. Within the growth rate in Iraq as a whole and Kurdistan region in particular, a massive number of companies entered Iraq through opening its branches and offices in Kurdistan region. Kurdistan international bank was the first bank opened it’s headquarter in Erbil (the capital city of Kurdistan region) which benefit from the increased attraction to the region’s booming economy. But without practicing the strategic management, Kurdistan international bank could not reach its objectives, and with low experience in stock market, weak public relations, luck of coordination with financial institutes and intermediates, the bank suffered from low share traded percentage, low share volume, low market capitalization and low turnover ratio each year in 2006-2008. After the industry and competitors been analyzed by using PESTLE analysis and Porter’s five force model of analysis, then the environmental factors (internal and external) has also been analyzed through using SWOT analysis, Internal factors analysis summary (IFAS), External factors analysis summary (EFAS), TOWS matrix, and Strategic factors analysis summary (SFAS). Thus, the top management must overcome with firstly a clear vision shared with its employees in various organizational levels, improving its human resources, increasing the marketing awareness, using marketing strategies like marketing relationships, using penetration strategy to enter new markets, improving the current services, products, creating unique products and services which differ from rivals lead to better growth in market share, market capitalization, shares traded volume and percentages, and turnover ratio.

Evaluation of hotel performance based on financial management, marketing and operations and management practices issues: Case study on Erbil international hotel

This Erbil International Hotel plays on important in Iraq tourism industry. It offers many facilities and services for travelers and tourists from domestic and international market. Erbil International Hotel has ten storey and attractive building located in the heart of the city of Erbil (the capital city of Kurdistan Region). It is a private ownership hotel. The main revenues of Erbil International are room, food and beverage. Its main investment had in property, workforces, and equipment’s. From the financial performance of Erbil International Hotel from 2005 to 2010, it indicates that total revenue of the Hotel was not enough to compensate the rising cost. Besides, the hotel has high fixed cost in the salaries and wages, cost of utilities and depreciations are the major items that have affected on costs and low profit margin. For five consecutive years from 2006 to 2010, the hotel has suffered a loss. This was due to the shortage of liquidity and low profit margin. The management failed to operate and managed the hotel efficiently based on the financial management, marketing issue and operations and management practices issues. Thus, this consultation project intends to provide Erbil International hotel with plans and strategies after carefully examine and analyze their financial performance problems by using financial ratio analysis, 4P’s analysis, SWOT analysis, internal and external factors analysis summary, and TOWS matrix.

Evaluate the Standard of Innovative Behavior in Kurdistan Region Ministry

Innovation is the main element in improving economic conditions for all the states, the large and the small, the developed and the developing. It is also the important factor in the long term success for all kinds of organizations (Galanakis, and Stuart, 2001). The important role of innovation for the states and organizations and the changes in the contemporary organizations environment, in particular changes in competition, complex customers needs, products life cycle shortage and the increasing technologies, has changed bases and rules of competition supporting the view that innovation is the competitive force for achieving the success of the organizations (Shi, Yeo, Wang, 2001). In a dynamic environment, innovation is very important to generate long-term stability, growth and sustainable performance (Cook, 1998). Innovation is essential for sustainable competitive advantage (Jacobs and Heracleous, 2005). Innovation is holistic in nature. It covers the entire range of activities necessary to provide value to target groups, and a satisfactory return to the business. For the public sector innovation should cover the activities of best utilization of resources and client satisfaction. Successful innovation requires management concern with ideas and people. Therefore, the role of people and their thinking process in innovation need to be appropriately considered (Thompson, 2001). Kurdistan region was established in 1990. However, Iraq ministries are relying highly on Donors in covering its expenses either in regular activities or development. Nonetheless, the Kurdistan regions are marked with over employment, corruption and low productivity (Zanoon, 2006). Many factors influence productivity in the ministries including, level of innovation among staff, physical resources, level of loyalty among employees and management proficiency. However, this research will investigate the evaluate degree of Innovative Behaviors at the Iraq ministries among managers.